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Political Analyst Claims Ruto Needs All Mt Kenya Votes If He Is To Beat Raila Odinga

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Deputy President William Ruto will need almost all the voters from the Mt Kenya region and it’s diaspora counties to vote for him if he is to become the next President, political risk analyst Dismas Mokua says.

This has been the argument among pundits for some time, with most pointing out that this is the only hope Ruto has, the other one being his Rift Valley backyard, as the other regions cannot be banked on.

He says that the DP will need 90 percent voter turnout and 100 percent of the vote to be the next President, hence his unending attempts to make forays into the President Uhuru Kenyatta-led area.

He admits that the DP is very popular in the region but opines that he will have to push it to ensure that he gets almost every single vote, failure to which he will have to settle for the opposition boss post.

“Ruto is now at his peak in terms of popularity in Mt Kenya. He has hit the saturation point. Ruto will need 90 per cent turnout and 100 per cent of the vote to actualise his State House dream,” he says.

He is among the commentators who believe that majority of the remaining regions cannot he counted on as they either belong to ODM leader Raila Odinga or are swing zones which can’t help the DP.

But his observation differs from what some allies of the DP believe, that he has a very good chance of being the next President even if he gets less than 50 percent of the Central Kenya support.

Ruto’s economic advisor David Ndii, for instance, is of the belief that Ruto can still get there with only 40% of the vote, provided that he manages 85% in the Rift.

“Question: If William Ruto gets 85% of Rift Valley vote, and only 40% of Central, assuming uniform turnout across the country, what % does he need from rest of country to cross 50% + 1? Answer: 24%,” he says in a tweet.

But Mokua disagrees and holds that even Ruto knows this, this being why he is doing everything to ensure that he gets the Central Kenya vote.

He observes that Ruto has among others, began avoiding attacking Uhuru, aware that this could cost him, and has resorted to taking credit for the successes of the President’s government.

“Ruto has come to the realisation that continuous attacks on President Kenyatta have diminishing returns; that as Kenya looks at the scoreboard, he has to review his targets,” he adds in an article in The Star.

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