If you want to ascertain if six-piece voting is likely to happen in Mt Kenya, you must first look at the situation during past elections.
When President Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy, William Ruto, campaigned, they urged people to vote for them and also all other Jubilee candidates.
They did this because of the nature of our political set-up. They did not want divided loyalty in county assemblies and Parliament, where certain decisions are made. If you want to have a smooth running of government affairs and legislate effectively, you must have members who are pro-you, those you can easily whip.
It would therefore be absurd for Ruto not to call for a six-piece voting in a region where he believes he enjoys massive support.
It will be significant for Ruto to insist on six-piece voting. It is true that there are fears at the grassroots because some elected leaders have let down their people. Since there was some level of betrayal in Jubilee, Ruto is trying to let aspirants in Mt Kenya play a role in deciding how UDA is to move.
This will in turn seal fears of any ulterior motive or lack of confidence in the party. Aspirants will then be willing to join the most popular political party. There has been evidence to suggest that the most popular party will give you about 35 per cent of the votes. The other percentage comes from personal branding and intensity of the campaigns.
If you contest on an unpopular party’s ticket in Mt Kenya, it will mean that you are likely to be elbowed out. As a candidate, you will have nobody to blame but yourself.
Aspirants must therefore make their calculations correctly. They need to know the political party that will easily deliver them the seat. They will also need to know where they have a competitive advantage.
Those who will choose to go against this reality are likely to lose. The Deputy President will certainly tell people to vote UDA from bottom to top and his supporters are certainly going to do it.
Political analyst Kariuki Ngunjiri spoke to the Star