With less than six months to the August 9, polls, various permutations on how Kenyans will vote are emerging in a bid to establish who among the top presidential candidates stand a chance to take the seat home.
The 2022 presidential contest has narrowed down to Kenya Kwanza Alliance and Azimio La Umoja as top formations likely to win the presidency.
ODM leader Raila Odinga and Deputy President William Ruto are deemed to be the front runners with opinion polls giving them a higher rating than the rest.
Considering the ballooned number of registered voters in the forthcoming polls, Senior Counsel Ahmednasir Abdullahi says the winner of the August polls needs more than 10 million votes.
In his analysis, the ODM leader stands to lose the polls and by a big margin to his fierce competitor Ruto if his running mate is not from the Mt Kenya region.
“The winning candidate in the August Presidential election will require 10-11 m votes. With or without Hon Musyoka, as long as Central Kenya doesn’t get DP, Raila can’t get more than 4m votes,” Ahmednasir said in a tweet on Monday.
According to the flamboyant Lawyer, Raila’s loss will be too big for anyone to contemplate using underhand means to have him declared the winner.
Ahmednasir, a perennial critic of Raila and his Handshake deal, did not elaborate on how Raila’s votes will take a dig in this coming polls.
Judging by his previous analysis of the polls, his conclusion is ostensibly pegged on the defection of his key allies in the name of ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi and Ford Kenya leader Moses Wetangula.
Besides, the lawyer has been claiming that the DP has won the support of many Kenyans at the ground since 2017 and that he will get more votes than what Uhuru got in the last polls.
“Except Mt Kenya, Ruto is going to beat Uhuru votes of 2017 in every part of the country,” he told Citizen Tv last Wednesday.
The Lawyer’s remarks are a sharp contrast to Raila’s performance in the last polls where he surpassed 5 million votes.
Opinion polls conducted by Radio Africa Group, on the other hand, shows the ODM leader making significant improvement in his numbers as the clock ticks to the August polls.
According to the latest poll released in January 2022, 46.1 per cent of registered voters say they will vote for Ruto in the presidential election on August 9 while 35.1 per cent say they will vote for Raila.
At this stage, Ruto’s lead will not be sufficient for him to win on the first round with a simple majority (50 per cent plus one vote).
In November 2021, a Radio Africa poll showed that 45.6 per cent of voters would vote for Ruto compared to 28.6 per cent for Raila.
In July, 42.7 per cent said they would vote for Ruto and 14.2 per cent for Raila.
While Raila’s support has been on an upward trajectory, Ruto has been stagnating.