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FAO grain index forecast decreases as Ukraine reports low grain export in November

Cereal utilization remains steady

According to the FAO Cereal supply and demand brief for November, there is a projected 1.1 million tonne decline in grain reserves since October to 839 million tonnes representing a 2.2% (18.5 million tonnes) decline from the previous seasons and the lowest in three years.

The impact of low grains production in Ukraine is projected to cut world cereal production in 2022 by 7.2 million tonnes to 2.756 tonnes, a 2% (57 million tonnes) lower year after year.

However, the world cereal utilization in 2022-23 is focused at 2.777 billion tonnes. This figure didn’t record a significant change in comparison to October at a 0.7% (21 million tonnes) decline from 2021-22.

The most recent downgrade mainly concerns maize and, albeit by a smaller amount, wheat production. The foreseen decline is driven mostly by an expected contraction in feed use, especially of maize, but also of barley and sorghum, as well as industrial use of maize.

However, a rise in the use of wheat for food is predicted to counter an expected fall in feed use and, to a much lesser extent, in other uses.

The forecast for total utilization of coarse grains in 2022-23 has been lowered marginally (1.2 million tonnes) from the previous forecast in November to 1.484 billion tonnes, marking a likely 1.3% fall from the previous season.

 On the other hand, World trade in World trade in cereals forecast for 2022-23 is at 472 million tonnes, up 2.7 million tonnes from last month but still pointing to a likely 1.9% (9.2 million tonnes) contraction from the 2021-22 record level.

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Jay Ndungu

Jay is a computer scientist and journalist with a passion for the intersection of technology and society. He has a background in computer science, developing a deep understanding of the technical aspects of the industry, including programming languages and software development methodologies. Currently, He writes for Nairobi Times, covering a wide range of topics including technology, politics, sports, and entertainment. With his unique combination of technical knowledge and journalistic experience, Jay brings a unique perspective to the stories he covers, able to explain complex technical concepts in an easy-to-understand manner. His work is dedicated to bridge the gap between technology and society, and to make people more aware of the potential of technology to make the world a better place.

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